WaitingonObama3
Many foreign stock markets also have risen from their recent lows, although most remain deeply depressed.Cash accounts, such as money market mutual funds, have been a great place to hide this year as markets crashed. But with the Fed's benchmark short-term rate now at rock bottom, the average annualized money market fund yield is a mere 0.8%. Investors know they'll earn virtually nothing if they stay in cash in 2009.
Besides trying to bolster wounded banks with cheap money, the Fed wants to push investors and savers to take more risk in search of higher returns.
Should you bite?
The argument for buying stocks is twofold: First, that share prices already reflect a serious recession and the accompanying plunge in corporate earnings.
With the average U.S. stock down 44% from the bull market peak in 2007, "I think we've priced in the severest of postwar recessions," said Jim Swanson, chief investment strategist at MFS Investment Management in Boston.
Second, optimists are relying on the usual market pattern in recessions, which is that stocks begin to rise before an economic recovery begins.
"The rebound usually begins four to seven months before the end of the recession," said Larry Adam, chief investment strategist at brokerage Deutsche Bank Alex. Brown in Baltimore. So if the betting is that the economy turns around at midyear, "We're starting to get into that window of opportunity" for stocks, he said.
That's Wall Street orthodoxy, and no doubt it will be difficult for many nervous investors to buy it, given all of the shocks of 2008 and the unknowns of 2009.
One alternative is just to wait, playing it safe in cash accounts until the economic picture gets clearer.
You may sacrifice some market gains, but you'll also avoid the risk of another steep sell-off in stocks if pessimism worsens.
Some investment pros are taking another route: They advise shifting some cash into high-quality corporate and tax-free municipal bonds -- or, for the truly brave, into junk bonds.
The credit crunch has pushed up corporate and muni bond yields, while yields on Treasury bonds have plummeted as many investors have rushed into those issues for safety.
Gordon Fowler Jr., chief investment officer of Glenmede Trust Co. in Philadelphia, figures that high-quality corporate and muni bonds are a less risky way than stocks to make a bet on better times ahead.
With yields still elevated, he notes, you're being paid reasonably well to take a chance that the economy will avoid the worst-case scenario.
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