China emerges bright spot in imbalanced global recovery: GS
BEIJING, Nov. 2 (Xinhua) -- China has emerged as a bright spot with robust growth and an optimistic economic outlook amid the imbalances in global economic recovery, investment bank Goldman Sachs (GS) said Monday.China's economy will register 10 percent growth next year and its macroeconomic fundamentals will also feature stable and continuous growth, although there would be higher inflationary pressures, the bank said in a report.
Goldman Sachs predicts that the world economy as a whole would grow 4.8 percent this year and 4.5 percent next year. For developed economies, the growth rate is expected to stand at 2.7 percent in 2010 and 2.1 percent in 2011. For the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), the figures are 8.8 percent and 8.7 percent respectively.
As for the world's biggest economy, Goldman Sachs estimated the United States may pose a growth rate of 2.6 percent this year and 1.8 percent next year, well below market projections. Meanwhile, the eurozone will witness a 1.7-percent growth this year and 1.8 percent next year, and Japan's economy is expected to grow by 2.9 percent and 1.0 percent respectively.
Given the fact that U.S. business activity remains sluggish, house prices may fall again and the stimulative fiscal policy would be phased out, the U.S. growth rate will probably put up an unsatisfactory below-trend performance. In particular, its unemployment rate will remain as high as 10 percent, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. economist Jan Hatzius said.
By comparison, China's economy will grow 10.1 percent this year and 10 percent next year. China's economic growth will remain stable and be in line with a long-term trend, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.
"In comparison with developed economies, emerging economies in general present an optimistic outlook. China's macroeconomic fundamentals contain many favorable factors such as the increase of domestic demand incurred by economic restructuring, a strong growth trend of retails as well as the expansion of capital markets," Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management Jim O'Neill said.
"A 10-percent growth rate cannot be explained as economic overheating given Chinese macroeconomic fundamentals," Goldman Sachs China economist Helen Qiao said.
Goldman Sachs listed five factors backing China's sustainable development.
First, domestic demand has become a major driving force. Secondly, internal and external demand tends to be stable. Thirdly, China has less reliance on exports to the United States, Europe and Asia's developed regions, while the rest of the world relies more on China's exports.Fourthly, a tightening financial context has helped increase the credibility of Chinese policymakers' control on the macroeconomic policies.
And fifthly, China's "12th five-year plan" has specified the key role of domestic demand, and China will lay stress on both consumption and investment.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs warned that soaring food prices could put higher pressure on inflation. As a result, China's decision makers will prioritize their efforts to contain inflation expectations and higher prices.
Global trade will continue facing challenges from protectionism, Jim O'Neil said. Stressed that China's yuan is not obviously undervalued, he said China's cautious attitude toward the adjustment of the yuan exchange rate was necessary.
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