13. In an attempt to sell radio advertising time, this ad claims that radio advertising
0 P; l9 t5 [; V/ S1 P/ Awill make businesses more profitable. The evidence cited is a ten percent increase in
/ t5 }& C) ~( p8 {( b# Q; zbusiness that the Cumquat Cafe has experienced in the year during which it advertised
3 _& q2 U, Y* H# h, v) B8 }on the local radio station. This argument is unconvincing because two questionable - c. i6 d, V+ R6 ]3 u' G
assumptions must be made for the stated evidence to support the authors conclusion.
6 j- @4 Z4 U( L- P The first assumption is that radio advertising alone has caused the increase in
4 M/ C& c. r+ X! W& j: T: tbusiness at the Cumquat Cafe. This assumption is questionable because it overlooks a
, |) I; x9 b+ g+ j0 C8 J& Jnumber of other factors that might have contributed to the Cumquat's success. For 0 [* \; h' P+ }- v$ w. V
example, the Cumquat might have changed owners or chefs; it might have launched a
1 K) p9 K" o& d8 b& W5 Scoupon ad campaign in the local print media; or it might have changed or updated the 5 |5 n v8 ^4 O( H" j' R" a5 ?
menu. Yet another possibility is that a local competitor went out of business. These are : L1 B I2 ~! d" T0 p
just a few of the factors that could help explain the Cumquat's growth. Because the
n `, q: \* A, _0 y0 W* fauthor fails to eliminate these possibilities, the assumption in question need not be
( G6 D# }) K7 I n O: T C& @accepted.' S* E. q9 u" d7 @4 Q( U
Even if it is granted that radio advertising is responsible for the Cumquat's g( J5 B0 d( J5 d$ p# l
success, another assumption must be made before we can conclude that radio ) C# }1 ]0 G' C" B& N
advertising will result in increased profits for businesses in general. We must also : e# S5 W1 @& P7 o& r0 I
assume that what is true of the Cumquat will likewise be true of most other businesses.
6 S' b g) q! T3 j4 QBut there are all kinds of important differences between cafes and other businesses that 0 \( s. w& m3 M
could affect how radio audiences react to their advertising. We cannot safely assume
1 E/ B# i8 q# B; ethat because a small restaurant has benefited from radio advertising, that any and all
7 |% x1 h1 c+ Glocal businesses will similarly benefit.( {% j. Z' C7 b9 u0 V7 f- f y
In conclusion, it would be imprudent for a business to invest in radio advertising & l" l, Z: c, r. h3 A4 d0 D
solely on the basis of the evidence presented. To strengthen the conclusion, it must be 7 z0 ]* k$ v: D+ K
established that radio advertising was the principal cause of increased business at the ! x0 |4 B* e" d7 a+ I7 b% T
Cumquat. Once this is shown, it must be determined that the business in question is 5 s: C- E V; s; d
sufficiently like the Cumquat, and so can expect similar returns from investment in 1 B2 F6 g0 O; e6 G" D% ~
radio ad time. |