The National Bureau of Statistics index of purchasing managers in July shows the economy may stabilize in the coming months after blistering growth in the first six months, analysts said. The index, which was compiled by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on behalf of the bureau and released yesterday, fell to 53.3 last month from 54.5 in June. A reading of over 50 indicates an expansion in business activity. It has fallen for the fourth consecutive month and the July figure was a five-month low. "It shows decreased orders for the coming months," said Zhu Baoliang, an economist from the State Information Center. "This is not surprising as the country has taken measures to cool the economy, which will lead to decreased exports in July and August," he told China Daily. China's gross domestic product grew by 11.5 percent and CPI growth hit a 33-month high of 4.4 percent in June, with fixed-assets investment and lending also hovering at high levels, triggering widespread concerns about an overheating economy. The country has started to reduce or remove the export rebate of more than 2,800 products from July 1 in its efforts to dampen exports and narrow trade surplus. The new export orders index by the statistics bureau fell to 53.5 in July from 55 in June. "Exporters have rushed to beat the tax rebate adjustment before July 1 and therefore the orders would drop in the coming months," Zhu said. The index would continue to drop but in a gradual manner this year, he said.
4 C4 Q( h3 S2 |0 q. i 据分析家分析，经过前6个月过热发展之后，国家统计局7月采购经理指数显示未来几个月经济可能稳定 。 昨天，中国物流与采购联合会和采购代表局联合公布指数，由6月份的54.5降至53.3。超过50的指数 表明商业活动在扩张。 采购经理指数连续4个月的下跌，7月份数据降至5个月的最低点。 国家信息中心经济师祝宝良指出“这显示未来几个月订单将下跌。这并不奇怪，由于国家采取防止经 济过热措施，这将导致7月到8月出口量减少。” 我国GDP增长了11.5%，6月份CPI增长4.4%创33个月新高。固定资产与贷款也盘旋在高位，引发了对经 济过热的广泛关注。 从今年7月1日开始，国家将不得不减少或取消2800余种产品的出口退税，以抑制出口，减少贸易顺差 。 统计局数据显示7月的出口订单指数将由6月的55降至53.5. “出口商不得不抢在7月1日出口退税政策调整之前，所以未来几个月订单会减少。”表示，今年指数将会逐渐继续下降 |
发表于 2012-8-16 08:12:37
