2012笔译高级考试辅导精选中英对照一

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美国最近的一项研究表明，消费者信心指数对股市和公司经营决策有着很大的影响，但对于预测美国人的消费模式则根本没用。
; q3 Y; L9 c- ]) q8 ?) c- t　　据美国广播公司2月20日报道，密歇根消费者信心指数（Michigan index）和大企业联合会（Conference Board）公布的消费者信心指数，被一些经济界人士、政府官员、投资者和媒体广泛引述。但美国瑞查蒙德大学的经济学教授迪恩·克劳苏尔日前指出，这两项指数无法预料美国人会花多少钱。他说：“一些人也许会说对经济状况表示不满，但是说完这句话之后他们可能立刻就去买汽车。”
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　　报道说，密歇根消费调查最初在二战以后开始，是用来衡量消费者悲观或乐观情绪的晴雨表。每次调查包含约50个问题，涉及从日用消费品到通货膨胀等各个方面。消费者信心指数是根据消费者在调查中回答其中的5个问题后产生的，这5个问题包括他们目前和将来的金融状况、就业前景以及时下是否是购买某个大件商品的良机。为了搜集资料，调查机构每个月至少要通过电话询问500人。大企业联合会搜集资料的方式大同小异，不过它需要询问更多的人，每月达到5000人。如果指数和投资者预期吻合，那么指数可以影响到股市的涨跌。例如，去年1月25日，大企业联合会指数曾将道琼斯工业股票指数推高93点，这也是它2005年的最惹眼的一次表现。

　　密歇根消费调查负责人理查德·克廷指出，消费者对某个具体问题的回答比单纯一个指数所传递的信息要多的多。很多因素，例如利率和资产价值等，都可以影响消费者的购买决定。克廷说：“因此，详细胜于笼统。” （朱红隽）
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Consumer confidence indexes help move stock markets, influence corporate decisions and alter governments' economic outlooks. But a study says they're essentially useless for forecasting Americans' spending patterns.
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The two closely tracked indexes - from the University of Michigan and the Conference Board - may reveal the mood of Americans when they are surveyed, but they don't predict whether people will spend more or less, said Dean Croushore, an economics professor at the University of Richmond.

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Croushore said that when he began his study, he believed the confidence readings had value and that his analysis might show they were more insightful than perceived. </p>
Croushore said the Michigan index performed worse in his unpublished study. In the late 1990s, for example, consumer spending increased, but the Michigan readings had showed confidence at a rather flat level while the Conference Board index had risen.
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Michigan's consumer surveys were created after World War II as a way of measuring consumers' optimism or pessimism. Each survey now includes about 50 questions that deal with everything from refrigerator purchases to inflation. Consumers are asked a number of follow-up questions, with a goal of understanding why they make certain financial decisions.

3 r0 Q$ p5 Q6 GThe sentiment index is based on the answers to five questions in the survey, including consumers' views of their financial situations currently and in the future, their expectations about employment, and whether it's a good time to buy a major household appliance.
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A minimum of 500 telephone interviews are conducted each month, and a score is calculated based on the responses.
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' M7 w9 P/ N' T* m' M  P/ P- uThe Conference Board's index, which dates to the 1960s, works in similar fashion. Its monthly survey is mailed to 5,000 U.S. households, with a response rate of 70 percent.

6 D9 m; x6 C6 N* @Over time, both indexes have grown in importance, and they are now widely cited by economists, government officials, investors and the media. Both have the ability to send the stock and bond markets rising or falling, depending on whether the indexes met investors expectations.
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4 C- d1 v. ]: D2 eOn Jan. 25, for example, Wall Street analysts said the release of the Conference Board's index helped propel the Dow Jones industrial average up nearly 93 points, its best day so far in 2005.
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Richard T. Curtin, director of the Michigan surveys, said it's more telling to look at consumers' responses to his survey's specific questions rather than the index itself. That's because over the decades, Americans' spending decisions have come to be based on an increasing number of factors, including expectations about interest rates and asset values, he said.
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$ @2 G9 M2 U: `  S: G. O"So the details are much more important than the overall number," Curtin said