近日,美联储购买6000亿美元国债的第二轮量化宽松政策遭到了全球的炮轰和谴责。对此,美国财长盖特纳7日表示,美国的经济增长对全球经济有利,而对于那些很大程度上依赖美国消费者的国家来说,绝对不是损失。他还认为,热钱对于新兴国家来说也有很多积极的作用。伴随着热钱肯定会有风险和挑战,但是大多数国家都会“化险为夷”(11月8日 中国经济网)。+ u, V* r( O6 P( I) q" s
Recently, the Federal Reserve was severely denounced by all other countries for its second round of quantitative easing (QE2) to buy $600 billion of Treasuries. In response, on November 7th, Timothy Geithner, finance minister of America, argued that the economic growth of USA was beneficial to the world, and it would by no means cause losses to those consumers who relied to great extent on USA. He also claimed that hot money would exert positive influence on emerging economies as well, and most countries would turn danger into safety despite the inevitable risks and challenges posed by hot money.
2 a! `# O4 t0 ?; f- P 美国不顾国际社会谴责,不顾大多数国家利益,执意实行量化宽松货币政策,是对国际社会特别是新兴市场国家的侵害。当前,美国经济复苏乏力,失业率高企,原因还是美国消费难以启动,市场处于低迷状态,实体经济生产积极性不高,而并不是缺乏流动性的问题。美国把利率维持在接近于零的水平,大肆印美元,不但转化不成国内生产力,国内实体经济也根本无法吸纳。这些美元已经迅速转变成热钱流出美国、冲击全球市场。而美国、欧洲以及日本等西方国家目前利率水平维持在低位,货币处于贬值状态,热钱在这些地区无利可图,使得大量热钱必定流入到能够谋取利益、货币持续升值、利率走高的新兴市场国家,从而对新兴市场国家经济造成巨大冲击。
7 G, w. O& r5 Y# Q3 b# |* J The monetary policy of quantitative easing, which was carried out by the United States obstinately regardless of global denunciation and ignoring the interests of most countries, would result in serious damage to the international community and particularly to emerging economies. Due to the weak consumption, sluggish market and low enthusiasm in real production, USA is currently characteristic of ailing economy and high unemployment, but such a situation is not caused by insufficient liquidity.
" C5 y/ m2 o+ X# g% |8 e1 i. k Domestic production cannot be facilitated despite the interest rate at nearly zero and greenback being printed without restraint. On the contrary, the liquidity is beyond the absorbability of American real economy. Such excessive dollars have already turned into hot money and flowed outside USA. With the low interest rate in Europe and Japan, profit margins of hot money are low there because of the devaluation of the currencies in these regions. Therefore, thanks to the appreciating currencies and rising interest rates in emerging economies, hot money is bound to flow there for high returns but exerts formidable impacts on these countries.
. O0 x+ I# f% g; ? 美国的弱势美元政策必然使得全球以美元计价的所有商品价格大幅走高,将把全球推向全面通胀之境地。美国的量化宽松货币政策,将急剧推高全球资产价格、吹大虚拟经济泡沫,使得全球经济金融重新走入新的危机,使得全球离再次爆发金融危机的路程越来越近。
9 w1 [, K6 K/ Z* K5 s As a result of the weak U.S. dollar policy of America, all commodities around the world valued in U.S. dollars will surge in price, and consequently, general inflation will be rampant globally. The quantitative easing of America will sharply push up global asset prices and amplify the bubbles of virtual economy, which may lead to another crisis in global economy and finance.
9 d. u9 k* J3 V0 E 新兴市场国家特别是中国是美国量化宽松政策的最大受害国。美国大肆印钞使得美元贬值,刺激了美国出口,而对于依赖出口较大的新兴市场国家包括中国在内的经济将遭受严重打击。美元是国际结算货币,许多国家的外汇储备都是美元,美国国债也是许多国家的储备资产,美元贬值等于掠夺了这些国家的财富。作为世界第一储备大国、储备美元资产最多的中国被美国掠夺的财富最多。% E7 t4 W* l5 R- l8 Q) ?; s/ G
Emerging economies, especially China, are victims which suffer most from the quantitative easing of America. By the unrestrained printing, U.S. dollars are devalued, which stimulates the export of USA and severely hits the emerging economies which heavily depend on export. U.S. dollars, most widely used for international settlement, are also reserved as assets in many countries, so are U.S. national debts. The wealth of such countries is looted because of the devaluation of U.S. dollars. China, which reserves U.S. dollars highest in the world, is the country most seriously robbed by America.
2 e3 ]4 b# d; I3 g7 z% t 因此,可以说,美国的量化宽松政策,美国大肆印钞6000亿美元绝对是全球经济的祸水,美国财长的热钱有益是不符合事实的诡辩。 |