“金融世界” 英语广播（15）

会计考友

上一讲中我们为您介绍了 floating exchange rates 和 fixed exchange rates，浮动汇率与固定汇率。澳广金融节目主持人巴里克拉克介绍说，二十世纪的固定汇率制不仅未能保持汇率的稳定，而且还为投机者提供了机会。
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但是实行浮动汇率制也同样有它的不利之处。不断变化的汇率为工商业的运作带来许多不确定因素。

8 H# ~+ ~' t# y- S. A% \/ Q* @不过，澳洲广播电台金融节目主持人巴里克拉克继续介绍说，各国的中央银行或储备银行大都会在关键时刻对市场进行干预，以减缓货币汇率的剧烈动荡。

) Q7 C$ K' E* }4 D4 g; E, Y5 l巴里克拉克在他的讲话中提到了这样一些词汇：

6 R3 b4 m. I, Y1 Reserve Bank 储备银行
$ Z  N) v6 j' ~2 cushion 缓冲垫，减震器
( I" v* f7 F' M% }2 h: v9 \  Z3 intervene 干预
2 _7 M1 r6 u$ ?& \9 O! x4 contention 辩论
; ~; i$ J# U  E% x9 D/ ]$ v5 h5 on balance 总的来说
6overshooting 过火，过激

6 \  t( B( c1 W9 \# C2 [下面我们听一遍巴里克拉克的谈话及中文翻译：
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' Z# G+ Y7 i0 sThe Reserve Bank tries to play a role in providing a comfort cushion by intervening from time to time in the foreign exchange market with a view to limiting its more extreme fluctuations.

" M3 h+ {4 Q+ Q( b0 _Whether the central bank should be doing this, and whether it actually can influence exchange rates in the face of market forces, are matters of some contention.
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; W$ w7 ~2 H- C" w9 `From its own analysis, the Reserve Bank is persuaded that, on balance, it plays a useful role in limiting overshooting in the market.
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巴里克拉克说，储备银行试图在减缓市场冲击力方面发挥作用，对外汇市场不时进行干预，目的是要限制它更剧烈的动荡。

中央银行是否应当采取这样的行动，以及它在面对市场力量时是否真能对汇率发挥影响，是需要继续讨论的问题。

  ]9 |- O% u7 V  S! @, x! N储备银行通过它自己的分析，确信它总的来说在限制市场的过激行为方面能够发挥有益的作用。

下面我们再听一遍巴里克拉克的这段谈话。（略）
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0 [5 x6 o) W3 U% h# |1 O刚才我们谈到了中央银行对外汇兑换市场的干预。许多经济学家对中央银行进行干预的效果持怀疑态度。美国斯坦福大学经济学教授安妮克鲁格就是其中之一。她说：

The first question is: can a central bank out-guess the market in terms of where the underlying market forces are taking the exchange rate? More interventiongs than not, I think, historically, have been when the central bank has been betting against the market. You may recall in 1992 when you had the upheavals in the European currencies, where there were a lot of bets against the markets and a lot of money was lost on the part of a lot of countries, including the Bank of England. So that basically, there's a real risk in central bank intervention.

安妮克鲁格教授说，首先的问题是，中央银行是否能够猜中潜在的市场势力会把市场汇率带向何处。我认为从历史上来看，多数市场的干预都是中央银行逆市场走向下的赌注。可以回想一下1992年欧洲货币的那场大动荡。当时许多人都逆市场而动，投下大批赌注，很多国家都损失了大笔的资金，包括英格兰银行在内。因此基本上来说，中央银行的干预确实存在着危险。

! F  ?7 o( |  R8 g  ?2 x" |I think central bank intervention is dangerous. They're betting on one side of the market and then that gives speculators a one-sided bet, because they know that they can't really lose by going on the other side.

我认为中央银行的干预是危险的。它们就市场的一方打赌，这就给了投机者向另一方下赌注的机会。因为投机者知道投向另一方就肯定不会输。