11. The recommendation endorsed in this argument is that residents of San Perdito
! R9 j) R2 v# ]' Lvote current mayor Montoya out of office, and re-elect former mayor Varro. The reasons
- Y' ?& \. k7 b* Q' z* E! z( Tcited are that during Montoya's four years in office the population has decreased while # S+ d6 r) C( }: \0 r; M* T" k# S
unemployment has increased, whereas during Varro's term unemployment declined
! E0 c* `! c `! k9 ?3 Cwhile the population grew. This argument involves the sort of gross oversimplification 8 E2 C( ^" C: I# S& Q2 u0 s* J
and emotional appeal typical of political rhetoric; for this reason it is unconvincing.
) i) }7 x: l5 \5 K. ?" f First of all, the author assumes that the Montoya istration caused the 9 ~7 o' h+ l4 y
unemployment in San Perdito as well as its population loss. The line of reasoning is that
+ C: m0 H$ U( S0 k) qbecause Montoya was elected before the rise in unemployment and the decline in 2 I+ d3 b0 [" V. Z. a& i
population, the former event caused the latter. But this is fallacious reasoning unless
I. p2 y5 V+ x' G* O) S: a5 Iother possible causal explanations have been considered and ruled out. For example, + l$ |: X* `% S& n: V0 q( E; \0 t
perhaps a statewide or nationwide recession is the cause of these events. Or perhaps the
! m; \1 \" u* f( j* F) q% Ccurrent economic downturn is part of a larger picture of economic cycles and trends,
8 K/ ^0 z3 _$ E8 |; _: p/ d1 m' M/ f. A4 \and has nothing to do with who happens to be mayor. Yet another possibility is that
3 N( v! o: V- xVarro enjoyed a period of economic stability and Varro's own istration set the & V* [. Y' N0 t6 x. }
stage for the unemployment and the decline in population the city is now experiencing 6 U3 W z! Y) j: ]6 l# C3 F5 f& t
under Montoya. : [6 o F9 r9 K }/ _; o4 X6 z
Secondly, job availability and the economic health of one's community are issues
4 t; E2 ]" `4 k& o) L3 f4 jthat affect people emotionally. The argument at hand might have been intentionally 7 v$ @9 l+ h# k8 s+ K( L
oversimplified for the specific purpose of angering citizens of San Perdito, and thereby ' z8 M0 L8 w4 ~+ ?- T* L/ A
turning them against the incumbent mayor. Arguments that bypass relevant, complex
' m( Q$ ?- u% a& L6 Z6 greasoning in favor of stirring up emotions do nothing to establish their conclusions; they
5 J* r5 k; u& ^# ^ fare also unfair to the parties involved.
6 \- {$ L/ B& W/ A8 V8 l3 Y3 m/ H In conclusion, I would not cast my vote for Varro on the basis of this weak ! R0 w7 L' {2 k
argument. The author must provide support for the assumption that Mayor Montoya has * z& a, a, w/ n# N
caused San Perdito's poor economy. Moreover, such support would have to involve , Y6 `7 c7 k% k5 ^4 \' r8 a' o7 `5 g) p
examining and eliminating other possible causal factors. Only with more convincing ' y# y B I" O. e7 c. {
evidence could this argument become more than just an emotional appeal. |