GMAT考试写作指导：Argument范文七四

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16.         Demographic trends that indicate an increase in the number of college-aged
people over the next ten years lead the author to predict an improved job market for all
# |6 {$ D+ M) T. O( dpeople seeking college-level teaching positions in their academic disciplines. Moreover,
the author argues that since Waymarsh University students with advanced degrees had
" C* ~! _  v8 san especially difficult time finding teaching jobs in the past, these trends portend better
8 ]) }# y" k/ h& B; b. I) i& Y0 utimes ahead for Waymarsh graduates. This argument is problematic in three important
respects.
      First, the author assumes that an increase in the number of college-aged people
over the next decade will necessarily result in an increase in the number of people who
$ l4 |3 G( M/ E) v+ oattend college during this period. While this is a reasonable assumption, it is by no
means a certainty. For example, a world war or economic depression in the next decade
3 p/ J6 e6 y; h0 o$ @2 Jwould certainly nullify this expectation.
5 \! R6 m' |, O8 ?+ S0 B' |9 Q      Second, even if we grant the preceding assumption, we must also consider the
additional assumption that increased university enrollments will lead to an increase in
teaching positions in all fields. However, it might turn out that some teaching specialties
; r; _. Y. J6 v6 Z' Oare in greater demand than others in the future, resulting in a disproportionate number of
teaching positions available in various fields. Consequently, persons trained in some
, D1 p- M  f8 j; xfields might find it more difficult, if not impossible, to find teaching jobs in the future.
      Finally, little can be foretold regarding the employability of Waymarsh graduates
in the future based on the information provided in the argument. Lacking information
about the reasons why Waymarsh graduates had an especially difficult time finding
& R/ _  j0 ~# Q3 _teaching jobs, it is difficult to assess their prospects for the future. It is probable,
3 o) T/ i1 s: O- Khowever, that since Waymarsh has had an especially hard time placing graduates in the
- y0 x+ R5 N$ J4 _! C) Zpast, the mere fact that more jobs are available will not, by itself, ensure that Waymarsh
$ c9 V# h' e3 B( r( k$ \0 g# K# t+ w  egraduates will have an easier time finding teaching jobs during the next decade.
' d; c3 v' V  D# f! O      In conclusion, this argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument, the
author must provide evidence that the only major trend in the next decade will be an
0 r  i) ~+ K, _  J4 B  Y2 L2 Sincrease in the number of people reaching college age. Regarding the future prospects
for Waymarsh graduates, the author must provide evidence that there were no
5 q# O, z+ z0 @idiosyncratic reasons that prevented them from finding jobs in the past.