GMAT考试写作指导：Argument范文六十

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30.        In this argument prudent investors are advised to stop investing in hotels and
8 y3 n3 E7 N. C: ]4 R4 Winvest instead in hospitals and nursing homes. The author cites two related trends—an
; a& Y6 g- Q2 D, a4 l% jaging population and a decline in hotel occupancy—as grounds for this advice. To
1 G) A; p5 a% e( x! ^& n" ?% Villustrate these trends, the author refers to another region of the country, where 20
  P) o9 V& C0 Tpercent of the population is over 65 years old and where occupancy rates in resort hotels
have declined significantly during the past six months. This argument is unconvincing
in a couple of important respects.
# a7 Z8 R% i! D' B, A+ y# A- U      In the first place, the author provides no evidence to support the claim that the
: ^  C! ]# `9 B: Kpopulation as a whole is aging and that the hotel occupancy rate in general is declining.
6 R0 h2 O- c7 v* _& ~! bThe example cited, while suggestive of these trends, is insufficient to warrant their truth
because there is no reason to believe that data drawn from this unnamed region is
representative of the entire country. For example, if the region from which the data was
gathered was Florida, it would clearly be unrepresentative. The reason for this is
obvious. Florida is populated by a disproportionate number of retired people over 65
5 k4 a9 y! v; p' e7 tyears old and is a very popular vacation destination during the winter months. Moreover,
+ R6 l. m- Y$ |/ X. D# Xresort hotel occupancy in Florida typically declines significantly during the summer
months.
      In the second place, the author has provided no evidence to support the claim that
the decline in hotel occupancy is related to the aging of the population. The author
; {' @1 S) W: ^( q) Iappears to believe that the decrease in occupancy rates at resort hotels is somehow
0 ~' A& H1 t+ [- d% {% d- F$ r3 @* Ucaused by the increase in the number of people over age 65. However, the example cited
' b& j. f1 h1 Eby the author establishes only that these two trends are correlated; it does not establish
that the decline in hotel occupancy is due to an increase in the number of people over
1 Q1 p/ s9 ^. M0 t) \% q3 Othe age of 65.
" Y+ H; l, c/ ^  z6 Z0 Z) G      In conclusion, the author's investment advice is not based on sound reasoning. To
  R* y" b5 c' ^: l1 Z; X# }" Ystrengthen the conclusion, the author must show that the trends were not restricted to a
( u6 t% v' U- ^- ?9 v3 ]; {( Xparticular region of the country. The author must also show that the cause of the decline
in hotel occupancy is the increase in the number of people over 65.