GMAT考试写作指导：Argument范文三九

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31.        In this argument a consulting firm recommends the transfer of investments from
  ]* }" x% |! p8 k) `* a, W+ GCola Loca to Early Bird Coffee because, during the next 20 years, coffee demand will
; ]5 f$ x! [1 u1 m1 d, e+ Xincrease while cola demand will decrease. This prediction is based on the expectation
that the number of older adults will significantly increase over the next 20 years,
- ?9 s1 M) C& f+ a6 }" {together with statistics, reportedly stable for the past 40 years, indicating that coffee
+ p, I! A% f. m9 g7 o9 wconsumption increases with age while cola consumption declines with increasing age.
For three reasons, this financial advice may not be sound.
      First, the argument assumes that relative supply conditions will remain unchanged
: y! _8 V' f$ S' Sover the next twenty years. However, the supply and cost of cola and coffee beans, as
well as other costs of doing business as a producer of coffee or cola, may fluctuate
  c- J% D: d9 s* i' b6 \( Z# Xgreatly over a long time period. These factors may affect comparative prices of coffee
; X1 S3 n. W: j' W8 land cola, which in turn may affect comparative demand and the value of investments in
, l$ t7 n* F, P& P% k2 `coffee and cola companies. Without considering other factors that contribute to the
( g' l3 w1 b% ?+ O4 \. E3 b3 `value of a coffee or cola company, the firm cannot justify its recommendation.
      Secondly, the argument fails to account for the timing of the increase in coffee
consumption. Perhaps the population will age dramatically during the next five years,
& C4 r: s0 U) F. Mthen remain relatively flat over the following 15 years. Or perhaps most of the increase
. z4 S+ ~8 U, p' Nin average age will occur toward the end of the 20-year period. An investor has more
opportunity to profit over the short and long term in the first scenario than in the second,
' R- l0 r" Z& ?; w3 ]* [) ^5 sassuming the investor can switch investments along the way. If the second scenario
reflects the facts, the firm's recommendation would be ill-founded.
      Finally, the firm unjustifiably relies on the studies that correlate coffee and cola
. A3 ]! @. g- |0 }& [) Zconsumption with age. The firm does not provide evidence to confirm the reliability of
the studies. Moreover, while the phrase "studies suggest" may appear to lend credibility
7 ~9 G  X, q$ H6 P8 x" Rto these claims, the phrase is vague enough to actually render the claims worthless, in
the absence of any information about them.
& W+ E% H/ j$ s4 \1 r/ i6 _( S      In conclusion, the firm should not transfer investments from Cola Loca to Early
3 Y" `: T( B6 j, ^  yBird Coffee on the basis of this argument. To better evaluate the recommendation, we
3 p. j  V+ J/ z+ v# r  z$ L2 M% v% Jwould need more information about the study upon which it relies. We would also need
more detailed projections of population trends during the next 20 years.