72. Based upon sales reports over a three-month period that indicate an increase in ; J& U* L6 x, q" ~
profits for stores that sell products for the home and a decrease in profits for clothing 5 R/ {6 @9 u+ f H
stores, the business manager of a department store concludes that consumers are 0 x- \# G$ [) M# J9 L4 S% H
choosing to purchase home furnishings rather than clothing. On the basis of this ; {* P I7 E/ `; q1 g
conclusion, the manager recommends a reduction in the size of the clothing department 7 q$ X$ Q$ z ~, H5 V# N: u# l
and an increase in the size of the home-furnishings department. This recommendation is " n% ^% \" H, ~; q6 A
problematic in two critical respects.
3 d8 Y; {' b' \. h0 ?' e5 j/ @ In the first place the author's conclusion that consumers are choosing to buy
9 l* b4 l6 t4 }/ ?products for their homes instead of clothing is based upon too small a sample. Data 2 i) x+ |2 A( F( X7 i
gathered from a three-month period is insufficient to establish the conclusion drawn ) R t/ a) i! e7 ]
from it. It is quite possible that the three-month period chosen is idiosyncratic and not 9 ?( a! u/ u1 B) z: \# C( ]" b* o
representative of entire year's sales. If so, reducing the size of the clothing departments . `( k4 P8 k" t- ^( t: f
and enlarging the home-furnishings departments may be a costly mistake.3 Y4 A1 J( T5 I% W( A/ j# L
In the second place, the data collected during the three month period may be
6 m6 O7 Q, p1 U9 m! |' qbiased. The fact that the data reflects sales in local stores is cause for concern. It is
$ @, {. ~; z" }3 k1 Qpossible that the sales trend in a particular location is not representative of sales in other # K* y \) C5 a( H+ e) A+ j
regions. For example, sales of clothing in Florida during the winter months are likely to j3 H p5 r% d
be quite different from sales of clothing in Alaska during the same period.
* j7 ]6 }! R( o) y$ |1 |. j* o In conclusion, this argument is not persuasive as it stands. A more convincing
) [* C! ~3 b5 f. I9 l$ \% W! i& a! qargument must provide additional sales data, collected at different periods of the year & r ]& P1 ? j* o1 u6 @
and at different locations, that substantiates the trend in question. |