2012年职称英语：阅读理解辅导5

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World Crude Oil Production May Peak a Decade Earlier Than Some Predict
In a finding that may speed efforts to conserve oil，scientists in Kuwait predict that world conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014.This prediction is almost a decade earlier than some other predictions. Their study is in ACS’Energy&Fuels1.
8 Y; Z5 Q3 L0 O0 G/ `9 HIbrahim Nashawi and colleagues point out that rapid growth in global oil consumption has sparked a growing interest in predicting "peak oil". "Peak oil" is the point where oil production reaches a maximum and then declines. Scientists have developed several models to forecast this point，and some put the date at 2020 or later. One of the most famous forecast models is called the Hubbert model2.It assumes that global oil production will follow a bell shaped curve3.A related concept is that4 of "Peak Oil." The term "Peak Oil" indicates the moment in which world wide production will peak，afterwards to start on irreversible decline.
7 N0 N- o& \: R; L: u( [The Hubbert model accurately predicted that oil production would peak in the United States in 1970.The model has since gained in popularity and has been used to forecast oil production worldwide.
However，recent studies show that the model is insufficient to account for5 more complex oil production cycles of some countries. Those cycles can be heavily influenced by technology changes，politics，and other factors，the scientists say.
# l+ w/ y6 B2 q+ k; wThe new study describes development of a new version of the Hubbert model that provides a more realistic and accurate oil production forecast. Using the new model，the scientists evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countries，which supply most of the world’s conventional crude oil6.They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014，years earlier than anticipated. The scientists also showed that the world’s oil reserves7 are being reduced at a rate of 2.1 percent a year. The new model could help inform energy-related decisions and public policy debate，they suggest.
词汇：
conserve v.保护，保存 irreversible adj.不可逆的，不可改变的
' ]5 e# o) k6 D/ n1 h2 Ycrude oil原油
  C3 h  ^0 Y/ o; u! ~spark v.闪耀;激发;鼓舞 insufficient 不充分的，不足的
5 k9 a- A, O5 X6 T* ^curve n.曲线
4 p- A# K7 N) b6 l注释：
1.ACS’Energy&Fuels：ACS是American Chemical Society(美国化学学会)的缩写。该学会成立于1876年，现已成为世界最大的科技协会。多年来，ACS一直致力于为全球化学研究机构、企业及个人提供高品质的文献资讯及服务。ACS出版的期刊有34种，这些期刊在化学领域中是被引用次数最多的化学期刊，Energy&Fuels即是其中一本。
1 g6 T1 b6 z; S( ?4 [4 u2.the Hubbert model：赫伯特模型是美国地质学家M.King Hubbert于1956年创建的，这是一个随时间增长的模型，Hubbert将其引入油气田开发，经推导使其成为一个可以预测油气田累积产量、瞬时产量、年产量和可采储量等多项开发指标的多功能预测模型。
9 I, H5 S) n7 H, }3.a bell shaped curve：钟形曲线
, Q- x3 ?/ I( w& J7 U$ D4.that of peak oil：that指代concept。
5.account for：说明，解释
6.conventional crude oil：常规原油
, B* ~( T' @: J( D: M9 [7.oil reserves：石油储量。通常使用复数形式reserves。
! C5 b& k% F6 ?* ]9 g练习：
1 s+ Q$ u, W: L$ J: z7 u1.Which of the following is closest in meaning to the word "sparked" appearing in paragraph 2 ?
A.flashed
% p7 E! [' I6 K. o3 qB.stimulated
C.changed
D.ended
2.The term "a bell shaped curve" appearing in paragraph 2 indicates that global oil production will
8 U) Y; \( d% WA.take the shape of a flat curve.
B.keep growing.
C.keep declining.
7 `% q3 \: x  QD.start to decline after global oil production peaks.
% L3 v" Y6 }0 _% u% K. i3.Which of the following is NOT true of the Hubbert model?
( m2 s) B) \7 C8 e- E$ tA.It successfully predicted that oil production peaked in the U.S.in 1970.
: m# w! ~" n. D& ^- {/ p5 u7 ~B.It has been used to predict oil production in many countries.
C.It is insufficient to explain oil production cycles in some countries.
: C0 M, Z* N! kD.It provides a very realistic and accurate oil production.
4.What is the major achievement of the new study mentioned in the last paragraph?
# _/ P; h' Y& T3 D! HA.It predicts global oil production will peak in 2014.
! Y: I1 J2 @' A. c! e1 yB.It predicts oil production will decline in 47 countries.
1 I& y+ @, E# f. X% y# uC.It confirms further the effectiveness of the Hubbert model.
D.It discovers a new gend of worldwide oil production.
& O3 c3 ?9 [. B5.Who develop the new version of the Hubbert model ?
3 i4 ^, F; \/ Y$ a% x- jA.American scientists.
B.Kuwaiti scientists.
/ v1 c. H% ]* QC.British scientists.
D.Scientists of 47 major oil-producing countries.
答案与题解：
1.B spark一词做及物动词使用时有“发动”、“激发"的意思，在此意为stimulated，即“引发”，这个句子的意思是：全球石油消费的快速增长已引发了对“石油峰值”预测的兴趣。
$ \" Y. a6 V& y  P% k) |2.D 此句接下来的句子中所提到的a related concept即是与a bell shaped curve相关的概念，也就是说，接下来的这个句子对a bell shaped curve做了解释，即世界石油生产达到最大峰值后将下降。
3.D 文章的第三段告诉我们，Hubbert预测模型精确地预测到美国石油生产于1970年将达到峰值。这一模型自受到公认后，已用于预测世界石油生产。第四段说，这一模型对于某些国家更加复杂的石油生产周期而言，其计算尚不充分。这些生产周期受到技术的改变、政策和其他因素的很大影响。所以，A、B和C都是对Hubbert模型的正确说明。
4.A 选项B、C和D所述内容均未在文章中提到。最后一段告诉我们，科学家使用新的模型评估了47个主要的产油国家的石油生产趋势，并预计全球常规原油生产到2014年将达最高峰值。所以，A是答案。
5.B短文第一段的第一个句子提供了答案。