金融英语阅读辅导：穷国面临通胀威胁

会计考友

　　Developing economies have proved resilient to credit market turmoil, but soaring food and energy prices pose a significant threat, says a World Bank study.
. U$ ?, P' r: U4 T　　In its annual report on global development finance, the bank trimmed its economic growth forecast for developing countries to 6.5 per cent this year from 7.8 per cent last year. While developing countries would continue to expand, “the balance of risks has plainly tilted to the downside”.
　　The World Bank said many developing countries were imperilled by soaring consumer price inflation. Particularly vulnerable were economies that attracted big private debt inflows, which triggered a rapid expansion of domestic credit, stoking inflationary pressures.
5 n! a" z3 _0 N1 A0 c　　These price increases posed a disproportionate threat to poor people in emerging markets because food and energy costs represented a larger part of a consumer's spending.
6 r7 M- s( x9 _* Y3 Y- q　　The price of food staples in nominal dollar terms has more than doubled since 2005 although the impact is smaller when adjusted for domestic inflation and exchange rates.
　　“A combination of much higher interest rates and slowing growth would definitely be bad news for emerging markets down the road,” said Uri Dadush, director of international trade at the World Bank. “For these reasons we need to be very, very aware of inflationary implications.”
　　The World Bank expects global economic growth to slow by a percentage point to 2.7 per cent this year, revised lower from a previous estimate of 3.3 per cent.
　　Although developing economies will expand more robustly, this is expected to moderate as tighter credit slows private capital flows to emerging markets.
# ]6 \8 o) _; a3 F3 w　　These capital flows reached a record 7.3 per cent of gross domestic product, or $1,030bn, last year, helped in part by the rapid establishment of foreign bank branches in developing countries, but this figure is expected to drop to 5 per cent or $850bn in 2009.
6 d, k  \! y3 Y, E　　Under the bank's worst-case scenario, capital flows to developing countries could decline more abruptly, to 3.5 per cent of GDP ($550bn). Countries dependent on international interbank markets for funding, including Hungary, Turkey, Ukraine and Russia, were most vulnerable to external financial shocks.
　　世界银行：穷国面临通胀威胁
" g. J& \0 T4 k5 N; A　　世界银行(World Bank)的一份研究表明，发展中经济体已证明了自己对信贷市场危机的承受力，但不断高涨的食品和能源价格将给它们带来重大威胁。
　　在一份关于全球开发金融的年度报告中，世界银行将其对发展中国家今年的经济增长预期从去年的7.8%下调至6.5%。随着发展中国家继续扩张发展，“风险的天平已平缓地偏向下降趋势”。
) C5 `# x; }" x* H1 X　　世界银行表示，许多发展中国家遭遇不断高涨的消费品价格通胀。尤为脆弱的是那些吸引了大量私人债务流入的经济体，这将触发其国内信贷市场的急剧膨胀，加剧通胀压力。
* N4 p$ T, [% F　　对新兴市场的穷人而言，由于食品和能源价格占据了其消费支出的更大一部分，这些价格上涨给他们带来了不成比例的威胁。
; j9 g% D1 |3 i+ J5 u, I' ]　　以名义美元计算，2005年以来，主食价格已涨了一倍多，虽然按国内通胀和汇率调整后，影响会小一些。
　　“利率上升和经济增长放缓并存，对新兴市场而言绝对是坏消息，”世界银行国际贸易业务负责人尤里?达杜什(Uri Dadush)称。“出于这些原因，我们必须对通胀的内在含义保持非常高度的清醒。”
- {: J! L$ R0 R3 l3 y$ v　　世界银行预计，今年的全球经济增长速度将下降一个百分点，至2.7%，而原先预计为3.3%。
　　虽然发展中经济体的增长将会相对强劲，但随着更为紧缩的信贷环境减缓了私人资本流向新兴市场的速度，预计它们的经济增速将会放慢。
9 {  a/ h: j+ Z; f" s* _　　去年，这些资本流动达到1.03万亿美元，约合发展中经济体国内生产总值(GDP)的7.3%，创下历史新高。部分原因是外资银行在发展中国家迅速开张分行。但该数值预计将在2009年下跌至5%（合8500亿美元）。
　　按照世界银行的最坏预期，流向发展中国家的资本将更为急剧下降，低至GDP的3.5%（合5500亿美元）。那些依赖国际银行间市场来募集资金的国家，包括匈牙利、土耳其、乌克兰和俄罗斯，将最容易受到外部金融危机打击。