金融英语阅读辅导：基金经理看淡市场前景

会计考友

Money managers' market outlook is getting gloomier, but they're not positioning themselves for a prolonged recession, according to a survey set to be released Tuesday.
" t3 K) i+ ?7 C: @　　 Just 32% of money managers believe U.S. stocks are undervalued, down from 42% three months ago, according to the latest quarterly Investment Manager Outlook survey by Russell Investments. Managers believe a slowing economy, inflation, shaky credit markets and energy costs are the top factors that could drag down stock returns in the second half of this year, the survey found.
6 x5 b. n% L" Z' n　　 The survey, conducted May 29 through June 6, collected 335 managers' views on various asset classes and sectors. Russell, a unit of Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Co., researches and selects money managers for investors, and markets the Russell lineup of market indexes.
　　 Relative to last quarter, managers became substantially more bearish on many areas of the stock and bond market. The U.S. large-company growth asset class, for example, remained the most popular, but is now favored by 57% of managers, down from 64% three months ago. 'Growth' stocks are those whose earnings are growing faster than the market average.
, w: f/ ~4 e% W) I0 V8 J+ D: s　　 Despite the gloom, managers signaled that they're not bracing for a long recession. U.S. small-company stocks, which tend to perform well coming out of economic downturns, earned higher marks than three months ago. Since investors tend to gravitate toward large-company stocks in times of uncertainty, small caps have been severely punished during the credit crisis, says Paulo Silva, portfolio manager at Penn Capital Management in Cherry Hill, N.J. Now, he says, 'some small-cap names seem to be becoming more attractive.'
　　 Managers backed away from some traditionally defensive stock-market sectors. Just 54% are bullish on health-care stocks, for example, down from 71% last quarter, while 37% favor consumer staples, down from 47%. Technology, backed by 68% of managers, replaced health care as the most-favored stock sector.
  f! ~/ t# d. B0 ~+ H　　 'People are beginning to eliminate the worst-case scenarios,' says Erik Ristuben, Russell's chief investment officer for multistrategy solutions. 'A profound recession is being taken out of the mix.'

* D6 x0 @# f6 x7 hSome survey results suggest managers are looking for the dollar to end its long slide. Managers lost enthusiasm for integrated oils and other energy stocks. Since oil is commonly priced in dollars, the falling greenback has boosted its price of late. 'If dollars aren't devaluing, that's one less pressure point on the price of oil,' Mr. Ristuben says. And foreign developed-market stocks, which have posted solid returns over the past several years, thanks largely to a falling dollar, are favored by just 42% of managers. That's down from 54% last quarter and a record low in the four-year history of the survey.
　　 Expectations of slower growth in places like the U.K. and continental Europe also colored managers' views of foreign developed-market stocks, Mr. Ristuben says. Managers are more confident in emerging-market stocks, which are favored by 49%, up from 46% three months ago. Though many emerging-market stocks have tumbled this year, developing economies 'are the ones showing the most growth going forward,' Mr. Silva says.
0 W+ l2 ?( d$ N! d3 ]　　 Managers also signaled an expectation that U.S. interest rates will rise. Just 14% of managers favor U.S. Treasurys, down from 23% three months ago, while 27% are bullish on corporate bonds, down from 37%. Bond prices generally drop as yields rise.
  Q9 F9 B6 |; O8 h3 i0 m　　 As managers backed away from defensive investments, they also lost enthusiasm for cash, now favored by 24%, down from 31% in the first quarter.
　　 周二公布的一项调查显示，基金经理对市场前景趋于悲观，但并不认为经济会陷入长期衰退。
% z: ^& f$ \) B　　 Russell Investments最新进行的投资经理展望季度调查显示，仅有32%的基金经理认为美国股市目前估值不足，这一比例低于三个月前的42%。调查发现，经理们认为，经济增长放缓、通货膨胀、信贷市场动荡以及能源成本飙升是下半年可能拖累股市走低的主要因素。

会计考友

</p>　此次调查在5月29日至6月6日期间进行，对象为335名来自不同资产类别与领域的基金经理。Russell是Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Co.的旗下子公司；该公司进行市场研究，为投资者挑选基金经理，并编制罗素(Russell)系列市场指数。
& [% k: C4 a, v5 {$ B: q+ |　　与上个季度接受调查时的观点相比，经理们对股市和债市诸多领域的悲观看法显著加强。例如，美国大型成长股仍然是最被看好的资产类别，但目前只被57%的基金经理所青睐，低于3个月前的64%。成长型股票是指收益增长快于市场平均水平的股票。
　　尽管看淡市场前景，但从调查结果看，基金经理们并不认为经济会陷入长期衰退。经济走出疲态时，美国小型股通常会表现出色；基金经理目前对这类股票的看法要好于3个月前。新泽西州资产管理公司Penn Capital Management的投资组合经理保罗?席尔瓦(Paulo Silva)表示，由于投资者在经济前景不明时一般会倾向于持有大型股，因此小型股在信贷危机中遭受了严重冲击。但他称，现在一些小型股似乎正越来越有吸引力。
, j3 N" e( V5 R6 \" B　　调查显示，一些传统的抗跌型股票正逐渐失宠。例如，只有54%的受访者看涨健康护理类股，低于上个季度的71%；同时，只有37%的经理推荐消费必需品类股，低于上季度的47%。科技类股得到了68%的基金经理支持，取代健康护理类股成为最受欢迎的类股。
% m+ z: a0 I- C$ o: ?( i/ N' Z　　Russell多策略解决方案部门的首席投资长艾里克?里斯特本(Erik Ristuben)认为，投资者正开始排除最坏的可能性，不再认为经济会陷入持续衰退。
9 T7 m4 @. N3 v4 V" Q" }　　调查还显示，基金经理们认为美元或将结束长期跌势。石油与其他能源类股也因此不再得宠。由于石油一般是以美元定价的，因此美元走低对近期油价涨势起到了推波助澜的作用。里斯特本表示，如果美元停止贬值，油价就少了个重要的推力。
　　主要得益于美元下挫，海外发达市场类股过去几年一直表现强劲。但在此次调查中，只有42%的经理推荐这一类股，低于上季度调查时的54%，创出该调查开展4年来的最低水平。
, H* l1 F: K! q( c4 S4 Q　　里斯特本说，基金经理们预计英国与欧洲大陆经济将放缓增长，这也影响了他们对海外发达市场类股的预期。经理们对新兴市场类股的信心有所增强，这类股票被49%的受访者所看好，高于上个季度的46%。席尔瓦指出，尽管许多新兴市场股票今年以来大幅下挫，但发展中经济体仍拥有最强劲的增长势头。
( G& U& G# J4 G# H9 t　　从调查结果看，基金经理们预计美国利率水平将会上升。只有14%的基金经理推荐美国国债，低于3个月前的23%；此外，有27%的经理看好公司债，低于上季度的37%。债券价格一般会随债券收益率上升而下跌。
　　随着基金经理们不再看好抗跌性投资，他们也失去了对持有现金的热情；目前只有24%的经理推荐持有现金，低于第一季度的31%。