Housing prices could fall up to 10 percent from current levels in major cities over the next 12 months, according to a report from a credit-rating agency released Monday.
- h0 R" T* [) u1 L: X5 v; B Government measures adopted to cool the market and the abundance of new properties for sale could lead to a decline of as much as 10 percent in real estate prices in the coming year, said the Standard & Poor's Ratings Services report.
3 r/ {1 O! M4 Y8 G# R/ t& e& V If the economy slows down significantly and interest rates rise sharply, home prices may even tumble 20 percent, the report said.
1 J6 P) w9 [% }* w "Some developers may face capital shortages in the fourth quarter, but they still could handle it if they cut prices," Li Guoyi, analyst with Standard & Poor's Ratings Services, told the Global Times Monday. p; \/ v/ T; Q+ W0 c4 S- b2 o# }
Developers are currently in a better position than they were in 2008, when prices dropped dramatically and capital dried up, according to the agency.
s6 i6 j7 E' y% i2 G9 h: _1 H3 u Many real-estate firms have adequate liquidity and have already locked in most of their revenue for 2010, reducing some of the financing pressure, the agency said.) G9 r A( a! J6 |$ m# i1 b( _
"In April and May as the central government began tightening housing policies, some developers sold apartments at discounts, and then their sales volume rebounded," Li said.
- Z: I# h) N' } The government tightened property policies in April, and the impact was almost immediate.
. |; w# @& e e$ ^1 d+ D Transaction volumes and prices dipped in major cities over the following two months, the first slowdown after almost a year of high-flying prices.3 @4 K- L. L E3 Y2 V7 X6 b
Some developers also held back project launches after the government's policy an-nouncements, exacerbating the decrease in transaction volumes, the agency said.
8 @9 t1 k @0 ~" Z/ ~! S% F a But in August and September, many companies reported solid sales growth. China's largest listed property developer Vanke posted record sales of 14.2 billion yuan ($2.11 billion) last month, up 160 percent from a year ago.
- r9 V. S. a3 r3 P8 u In reaction to the rebound, the central government recently strengthened enforce-ment of real-estate policies already on the books since April and increased down payment requirements for first homebuyers to 30 percent. |