Housing prices could fall up to 10 percent from current levels in major cities over the next 12 months, according to a report from a credit-rating agency released Monday.
. F$ x0 I: P4 x7 f6 ~9 t# y Government measures adopted to cool the market and the abundance of new properties for sale could lead to a decline of as much as 10 percent in real estate prices in the coming year, said the Standard & Poor's Ratings Services report.( M1 L5 m9 v# C
If the economy slows down significantly and interest rates rise sharply, home prices may even tumble 20 percent, the report said.
; L% u: }; J8 J1 X, u, l4 F3 t3 j "Some developers may face capital shortages in the fourth quarter, but they still could handle it if they cut prices," Li Guoyi, analyst with Standard & Poor's Ratings Services, told the Global Times Monday.
& o* E9 i$ Q9 B/ q- L$ x0 x Developers are currently in a better position than they were in 2008, when prices dropped dramatically and capital dried up, according to the agency.
4 X# ~: b) N7 f X% N Many real-estate firms have adequate liquidity and have already locked in most of their revenue for 2010, reducing some of the financing pressure, the agency said.
5 G8 C$ B0 N B2 C3 ]0 f "In April and May as the central government began tightening housing policies, some developers sold apartments at discounts, and then their sales volume rebounded," Li said. I O. q/ o( K e( ^: @
The government tightened property policies in April, and the impact was almost immediate.
* t8 B6 P- w' j$ T. j Transaction volumes and prices dipped in major cities over the following two months, the first slowdown after almost a year of high-flying prices.
- c1 q3 F1 q+ F& v" q Some developers also held back project launches after the government's policy an-nouncements, exacerbating the decrease in transaction volumes, the agency said.
3 q( l* r1 N- G/ z2 k4 J. M But in August and September, many companies reported solid sales growth. China's largest listed property developer Vanke posted record sales of 14.2 billion yuan ($2.11 billion) last month, up 160 percent from a year ago.
( l }' p6 b! [) @0 G In reaction to the rebound, the central government recently strengthened enforce-ment of real-estate policies already on the books since April and increased down payment requirements for first homebuyers to 30 percent. |