On the face of things, a fall in the number of people infected with HIV (the virus that causes AIDS) from 39.5m to 33.2m over the course of a single year, as reported in this year's AIDS epidemic update from the World Health Organisation (WHO) and UNAIDS, should be cause for rejoicing. Indeed, it is, for it means there are fewer people to treat, and fewer to pass the infection on, than was previously thought. But the fall is not a real fall. Rather, it is due to a change in the way the size of the epidemic is estimated.
Z- o7 U4 o5 N5 L, Y4 W If you factor in that change, the number of infected individuals has actually risen since last year, by 500,000. Yet even that is not necessarily bad news in the paradoxical world of AIDS. As treatment programmes are rolled out around the world, death rates are falling. According to the revised figures, the lethal peak, of 2.2m a year, was in 2005. Now the figure is 2.1m. Since the only way for an infected person to drop out of the statistics in reality (as opposed to by sleight of statistical hand) is for him to die, such increased survivorship inevitably pushes up the total size of the epidemic.6 u" V3 R P0 y
The best news of all, however, is that the new figures confirm what had previously been suspected—that the epidemic has peaked. The highest annual number of new infections around the world was 3.4m in 1998. That figure has now fallen to 2.5m.
! T) X1 l) w0 P! Y Both the change in the death rate and the change in the infection rate are partly a consequence of the natural flow and ebb of any epidemic infection. But they are also a reflection of the hard graft of public-health workers in many countries, who have persuaded millions of people to modify or abandon risky behaviour, such as having unprotected sex, as they have also created the medical infrastructure needed to distribute anti-retroviral drugs that can keep symptoms at bay in those who do become infected.7 T8 }4 A0 o' g* I1 C5 ?3 G
The revision of the figures is mainly a result of better data-collection methods, particularly in India (which accounts for half the downward revision) and five African countries (which account for another fifth). In India many more sampling points have been established, and in all countries better survey methods, relying on surveyors knocking on doors rather than asking questions at clinics, have gathered data from more representative samples.( J/ u- ]" G3 A4 d6 K
Sceptics will feel vindicated by the revision. They have suspected for a while that the older survey methods were biased, and that the inflation thus produced was tolerated because it helped twang the heart-strings of potential donors. However, the structures for collecting and distributing money to combat AIDS are now well established, and accurate data are crucial if that money is not to be misdirected. The new information also means that the goal of treatment for all who need it will be easier and cheaper to achieve. The WHO and UNAIDS are planning to publish a report on the matter early next year, but Paul De Lay, UNAIDS's director of evidence, monitoring and policy, says that the financial requirements for 2010 will probably be about 5% less than previously estimated, and that by 2015 that figure will have risen to 10%. Good news for everyone, then, donors and sufferers alike.6 M) G" j* ~" D$ m4 c9 {* `
1. Though the number of infected individuals has risen, it is still worth rejoicing because_____" |, v1 e, }6 X4 l5 @
[A] the number of people who are dying from AIDS has decreased.
, s. H* a. K* R, ]+ ?( q [B] the total size of the epidemic is shrinking in a significant extent.$ Y: t ]: [& I
[C] it is only a rise in the sense of statistics, instead of a real number.
) k* w8 @0 o# W* Q& `7 F" F [D] in the paradoxical world of AIDS bad news can turn out to be good news.: a( Z6 G2 m' S8 P7 Q8 l
2. About the changes in the death rate and the infection rate of HIV, which one of the following statements is NOT true?
. n; W/ }; B4 |0 J) l4 _ [A] Any epidemic will naturally has such changes.
K' g6 x8 b; B+ }& N [B] They are mainly aroused by the new statistic methods.
6 r8 Y8 F- F# \9 ~5 [, S9 P7 l [C] They clearly mirror of the essential achievements of public-health workers.9 t X" l6 _; ~' `( h
[D] The death rate has been greatly suppressed due to massive implementation of treatment programmes.
9 f W% @7 n" p/ v8 i' \ 3. The word “vindicatde” (Line 1, Paragraph 6) most probably means_____+ l4 O9 W8 I# ~8 C
[A] confused.6 S" f9 e) v3 b8 {$ M; A0 m
[B] clarified.. H9 _' G/ m+ H8 o+ Z1 F( p: W2 ?
[C] doubting.
5 a% }, U) D) b0 `( X- o [D] annoyed. u& x8 l$ N7 W' B' D
4. By 2015, the financial requirements will _____7 t4 m5 N4 }. S2 |+ O: {1 o7 R; R
[A] have risen by 10% more than what have been previously estimated." c/ l2 ?# N: D7 G, K% }
[B] be 10% of what have been previously estimated.
D$ L9 _% ?4 ?* ~; Q! ] [C] be 10% less than previously estimated.
) M- s2 I# }: j+ X9 I, Q [D] be 15% less than previously estimated.) A4 d# N3 M' b4 s% y3 a V
5. Towards the revision, the author’s attitude can be said to be_____2 G' G4 ^, g% Y, r9 M3 k0 {% P0 F7 C
[A] negative.
1 M0 }3 _% v, g# Z [B] positive.1 c5 j/ j7 w5 S: Y
[C] indifferent.
9 s: }, H) i/ C7 `, N; G8 N [D] neutral.' M5 u& @! z# N1 m
文章剖析:& I( N) P- U8 r3 i( H, J
这篇文章介绍了艾滋病统计新方法实施带来的变化。第一段讲述根据新的统计方法对于艾滋病数量带来的变化;第二段讲述着这种统计方法带来的死亡率变化;第三段讲述数据修改证实了一些猜测;第四段讲述数字的变化也反映了公共卫生做出的贡献;第五段讲述数据修改的途径;第六段讲述正确数据的重要性。
' M9 W: C: J& f; H4 h' G 词汇注释:! J) b* T0 f" w3 d j0 n7 o
factor in v. 计算入内 sleight n. 诡计,手法
5 @. \8 C5 ~1 F# r& G ebb n. 衰落 vindicate v. 证明…正确1 v2 r0 A' |& v! N7 I. s# `! s
twang v. 拨动弦声
9 w7 U' \* B+ L4 J 难句突破:/ @9 x/ y6 j" M5 J3 y' d
(1) On the face of things, a fall in the number of people infected with HIV (the virus that causes AIDS) from 39.5m to 33.2m over the course of a single year, as reported in this year's AIDS epidemic update from the World Health Organisation (WHO) and UNAIDS, should be cause for rejoicing.; y q j. n/ _7 _
[主体句式]A fall should be cause for rejoicing.
2 }( d4 V6 @* C! G [结构分析] 这是一个简单句。On the face of things是句子的状语,而as 引导的定语从句是用来修饰前面的a fall in the number…。
2 I L5 m: G, |- s: ^3 n [句子译文] 世界卫生组织和UNAIDS报告的本年度艾滋病最新数据表明,在短短一年的时间内感染HIV(引发艾滋病的病毒)的人数从3950万人减少到3320万人,表面上来看这确实令人欣喜。- M9 F2 `/ ^& @; [; i9 x7 |
(2) But they are also a reflection of the hard graft of public-health workers in many countries, who have persuaded millions of people to modify or abandon risky behaviour, such as having unprotected sex, as they have also created the medical infrastructure needed to distribute anti-retroviral drugs that can keep symptoms at bay in those who do become infected.
. O" |( ~& P2 S; c) O. t( l [主体句式] But they are also a reflection of …0 `6 y9 y# Y3 @ G- ^
[结构分析] 这是一个复合句, 表语的定语结构比较复杂;在该定语中,who引导的定语从句修饰前面的workers,后面such as结构用来修饰risky behaviour; such as后面是两个并列的成分, 一个为动名词短语,一个是句子;在这个并列成分的句子中,有一个以that引导的定语从句用来修饰drugs。* ~) H. E$ t% X+ o8 Q
[句子译文] 但是也反映了许多公共卫生工作者的努力,他们成功说服了成百万上千万的人们改变或者放弃危险的性行为、如没有任何保护措施的性行为,他们还建立了医疗基础措施来分发反逆转药物,这种药物可以让那些已经被感染的患者症状消失。5 u0 G/ E+ i6 h7 N/ Y; M) k* A
题目分析:
/ \4 x; F& s. ]! @) Z+ ?" h3 i E. _ 1. Though the number of infected individuals has risen, it is still worth rejoicing because_____ 1. 尽管感染艾滋病的人数上升了,但是还是值得高兴,因为_____& g1 T8 H6 J: y- x! {$ Z/ ~: X
[A] the number of people who are dying from AIDS has decreased. [A] 死于艾滋病的人数减少了。
! e0 t$ e; Y" n; F [B] the total size of the epidemic is shrinking in a significant extent. [B] 这种传染病整体的数量下降了。8 f6 V; E8 d+ w# e/ c1 N1 e# O; e
[C] it is only a rise in the sense of statistics, instead of a real number. [C] 这只是统计上的增加,而不是实际数目的增加。; s s/ O1 N t) _. E2 \
[D]in the paradoxical world of AIDS bad news can turn out to be good news. [D] 在荒谬、是非颠倒的艾滋病世界中,坏消息也能变成好消息。+ o% Z5 i5 F* w Y! V6 [" P
[答案]A
: L& S9 D, `: F8 I0 s [难度系数] ☆☆☆☆
) s) g1 }' p j8 s* P+ x3 { [分析] 推理题。本题针对的是文章的第一段和第二段。文章第二段提到,虽然感染的人数上升了,但并不是坏消息,因为随着全世界医疗水平的提高,爱滋病死亡率下降了。这个上升的数据对应的是死亡人数的减少,因此,选项中A符合题意。B选项显然是错误的,因为整体染病的人数还在上升,而下降的是增加人数的比率。C选项是对第一段“但这个数量的减少却不是真正的减少,而是因为评估该传染病数量的方法发生了改变”的误解。D选项是对第二段“Yet even that is not necessarily bad news in the paradoxical world of AIDS”的曲解,选项的表述过于绝对,而原文的语气没有这么肯定。7 |, f9 |. w9 b6 u) @8 ?0 E: y9 z
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